BTC Price Prediction: Navigating Support Tests Amid Institutional Growth

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Schiff Dismisses $DJT's Pivot to Bitcoin as Political Play

Peter Schiff has publicly criticized Trump Media and Technology Group ($DJT), calling its transformation from a failed social media venture into a Bitcoin treasury a maneuver devoid of intrinsic value. The company, which began trading under the symbol $DJT after merging with SPAC Digital World Acquisition Corp., now claims a $2 billion Bitcoin portfolio—a shift Schiff derides as politically motivated.

The firm’s latest pivot to fusion energy further underscores its lack of a coherent strategy, according to Schiff. His remarks highlight broader skepticism about companies leveraging cryptocurrency trends for credibility without substantive financial foundations.

Bitcoin Volatility Dips Below Nvidia as Institutional Inflows Grow

Bitcoin's price swings are narrowing faster than Wall Street anticipated. The cryptocurrency's 68% ascent from April to October 2025 pales against Nvidia's 120% surge during the same period—a divergence Bitwise attributes to deepening institutional participation.

Spot ETF approvals and traditional finance channels have reshaped BTC's market dynamics. "BTC already less volatile than Nvidia in 2025...thanks to institutional inflows & ETFs," Bitwise declared in a social media post. The asset manager projects this stability will intensify through 2026 alongside new all-time highs.

Market veterans note the breakdown of Bitcoin's historic four-year cycle. The influx of pension funds and corporate treasuries through regulated vehicles has effectively muted retail-driven volatility. Where tech stocks still gyrate on earnings surprises, crypto's new institutional backbone provides ballast.

Bitcoin’s Fragile Recovery Amid Institutional Inflows and Long-Term Holder Selling

Bitcoin’s price action remains conflicted, caught between renewed institutional demand and persistent selling pressure. The cryptocurrency has retreated more than 30% from its 2024 peak of $126,000, with ETF inflows failing to offset structural headwinds.

Long-term holders have unleashed significant supply pressure—1.6 million BTC dormant for at least two years has entered circulation since early 2023. Blockchain data reveals one of the most aggressive sell-offs by this cohort in half a decade, creating a grinding downtrend rather than sharp capitulation.

The market’s fragility stems from weak participation and absorption capacity. While some capital has returned via ETFs, the reactivated supply from long-term holders continues to weigh on sentiment, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to further downside.

US Lawmakers Consider Narrowing Crypto Tax Exemption to Stablecoins, Sparking Bitcoin Backlash

US legislators are proposing a controversial revision to cryptocurrency tax rules that would restrict the 'de minimis' exemption solely to stablecoins. This potential shift has drawn sharp criticism from Bitcoin advocates who argue it fundamentally undermines the policy's original intent of enabling practical crypto payments.

The current IRS treatment of digital assets as property creates an onerous compliance burden. Every minor transaction—even buying coffee—requires capital gains calculations. The proposed stablecoin-only exemption WOULD exclude volatile assets like Bitcoin from relief, despite their frequent use in everyday transactions.

Bitcoin Policy Institute's Conner Brown condemned the measure as a 'severe mistake,' noting stablecoins rarely generate taxable gains anyway. The MOVE threatens to institutionalize a two-tier system that favors centralized digital currencies over decentralized alternatives.

SEC Charges VBit Founder Danh C. Vo for Alleged $96M Bitcoin Mining Fraud

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a complaint against VBit Technologies founder Danh C. Vo, accusing him of defrauding investors through deceptive Bitcoin mining offerings. The case, filed in Delaware federal court, alleges Vo raised $95.6 million from 6,400 investors between 2018-2022 while operating far fewer mining rigs than promised.

VBit marketed turnkey Bitcoin mining solutions to retail investors through tiered hosting packages priced up to $113,908. The SEC contends these agreements constituted unregistered securities, as investors expected profits derived from third-party efforts rather than their own mining operations.

The regulatory action highlights ongoing scrutiny of cryptocurrency investment schemes following the 2022 market downturn. While Bitcoin mining remains a legitimate industry, the case underscores the risks of opaque operations promising passive income streams.

Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Macro Winds Shift

Bitcoin wobbles NEAR $85,000 as traders digest mixed signals. The bear flag pattern gains credibility after failed attempts to reclaim $90,200, with technicals suggesting vulnerability to a test of $80,600 support. Meanwhile, macro headwinds persist—US CPI data disappointed, while the Bank of England's 25bps cut to 3.75% underscores global growth concerns.

Governor Bailey's cautious tone mirrors market unease: 'Inflation has peaked, but the economy remains fragile.' This defensive pivot from central banks leaves risk assets like BTC in limbo—caught between fading inflation fears and lackluster growth prospects.

Bitcoin On-Chain Profitability Declines as Market Enters New Phase

Bitcoin's brief surge above $90,000 proved unsustainable as volatility compressed profit margins for on-chain transactions. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal—a key metric for tracking profitable BTC movements—shows steady deterioration, indicating diminishing rewards for network participants.

Market structure appears to be shifting away from trader-dominated flows. Alphractal data reveals decreasing profitability in coin transfers, with some transactions now occurring at a loss. This marks a departure from previous cycles where on-chain movements reliably captured price fluctuations.

Bitcoin Solidifies Position as Low-Risk Asset Amid Declining Volatility

Bitcoin's investor base is maturing as institutional products like ETFs attract diverse capital flows. Bitwise notes BTC's volatility has declined consistently over the past decade, now projecting lower swings than tech equities like Nvidia through 2025.

The cryptocurrency briefly touched $75,000 in April before rallying to record highs near $126,000 by October, demonstrating reduced downside volatility compared to previous cycles. Traditional finance's embrace through regulated investment vehicles appears to be dampening price extremes.

Market Anticipates Inflation Data as Tech Stocks Seek Rebound

Stock futures edged higher Thursday ahead of key inflation data, with Nasdaq futures leading gains at +0.8% as tech looks to recover from Wednesday's selloff. The November CPI report looms large—consensus expects 3.1% annualized inflation, which would mark the highest reading in over a year.

Bitcoin held steady at $87k, maintaining its range-bound trading pattern despite broader market volatility. The cryptocurrency's stability contrasts with oil's slide to $56/barrel and gold's retreat from record highs at $4,350.

Micron's earnings-driven surge highlights growing demand for memory chips, while Nike's upcoming strategic update may signal how consumer brands are navigating tariff impacts. Treasury yields hovered at 4.13% as investors await inflation clarity.

MSCI's Crypto Exclusion Proposal Sparks Backlash as $15B Selloff Looms

Index provider MSCI faces mounting opposition to its plan to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes. The controversial proposal could force a $15 billion selloff of crypto holdings if implemented, with analysts warning of significant market pressure.

Strategy Inc., led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le, formally challenged the measure in a December 10 letter. The company argues the move contradicts the Biden administration's pro-innovation stance on digital assets, including recent initiatives to expand retirement plan access to cryptocurrencies.

The debate centers on whether crypto-heavy firms should be classified as operating companies or investment funds. Strategy maintains its Bitcoin-backed treasury operations constitute legitimate corporate activity rather than passive investment.

With the consultation period ending December 31 and a final decision expected January 15, 2026, the outcome could reshape institutional crypto exposure. The proposal specifically targets companies holding digital assets exceeding 50% of total assets.

Kraken Debuts Krak Card with 1% Crypto Cashback and Instant Cross-Border Transfers

Kraken launches the Krak Card in the EU and UK, a debit card enabling instant spending of 400+ fiat and cryptocurrencies with zero conversion fees. Users earn 1% unlimited cashback in fiat or Bitcoin—a direct challenge to traditional banking rewards programs with caps and restrictions.

The card eliminates legacy pain points: cross-border transfers settle instantly between Kraken accounts, bypassing the days-long delays and fees of conventional banks. This positions Kraken as a bridge between crypto liquidity and real-world commerce.

Traditional institutions now face pressure to modernize. Where banks offer multi-currency accounts with friction, Kraken delivers seamless conversions at checkout. Where wire transfers incur delays, Kraken moves value peer-to-peer like digital cash.

How High Will BTC Price Go?

Based on the current technical setup and news-driven sentiment, BTC's near-term trajectory hinges on holding key support. The immediate target for a bullish reversal is a reclaim of the 20-day Moving Average at 89,644 USDT. A successful break above could see a rally toward the 94,282 USDT upper Bollinger Band.

However, the path higher is not straightforward. The conflicting signals from institutional inflows versus selling pressure and regulatory news create a volatile environment. The table below summarizes the key bullish and bearish factors:

"The ceiling for BTC in the coming weeks is likely capped near the 94,300 region unless we see a significant positive catalyst, such as clearer regulatory guidance or a surge in macro risk appetite," concludes William. A break below the 85,000 support could invalidate this outlook and lead to a deeper correction.